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Denmark Post-COVID

Denmark is gradually gaining control over the novel Coronavirus. However, its consequences will have a huge impact on the country’s political economy in the coming years. Here are five issues to follow closely.   Support for the Government   The popularity of the current Social Democratic government has skyrocketed in recent months, with the Social Democrats now polling 15% above their nearest rivals. This is predictable – almost all governments have experienced a “rally round the flag” effect during the pandemic; even those with imperfect responses like the United Kingdom and Italy. Factor in Mette Frederiksen’s calm and forthright approach, so impressive as to be praised by opposition politicians, and the popularity is no surprise.   In normal times, the [...]

By |June 9th, 2020|Categories: Newsletters|

Economic Performance Under Trump

Part of the media’s role in politics is to sort out the spin from the facts. In terms of analysing the American economy, the media have failed. They have wholeheartedly embraced the Trump administration’s narrative that the America is witnessing a groundbreaking performance; in fact the performance is decidedly average and well below the Trump’s administration’s goal. With the 2019 figures in, the average growth rate for the last three years has been 2.5%. This is below the average since the Second World War, broadly similar to President Obama’s second term, and well below the 4% President Trump promised (the Clinton administration, uniquely in recent decades, got close to this figure). To make these bald numbers worse, this is [...]

By |February 17th, 2020|Categories: Newsletters, Uncategorized|

Five Talking Points from the British Election

Elections to the British Parliament were held on 12 December. The Conservatives won a comprehensive victory, whilst the night proved disastrous for the opposition Labour and Liberal Democrats. Here is a rundown of five of the main takeaways.   Johnson’s Personal Triumph   A year ago Boris Johnson’s top level career seemed to be over. He had resigned after an ineffectual spell as Foreign Secretary, and parliamentary colleagues briefed journalists about his countless failings.   Theresa May’s deal floundered though, and the Conservatives were crushed in the European elections. Desperate times called for desperate measures, and previously sceptical Tories threw their reservations aside in the hope that Johnson’s charismatic style would win back swaying voters.   The election result vindicated [...]

By |January 20th, 2020|Categories: Newsletters|

NEW DANISH GOVERNMENT STARTS WELL BUT DOUBTS PERSIST

Whilst British Prime Minister Boris Johnson recently illegally suspended Parliament, and US President Donald Trump faces an impeachment inquiry, new Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has faced far less turbulent times. Firstly, a ferocious Liberal party power struggle has taken up all the domestic focus in recent months. Secondly, Denmark is in a fairly enviable position. Growth since the financial crisis has been steady, if unspectacular; unemployment is moderate; there is a whopping current account deficit; and Denmark enjoys one of the lowest levels of public debt in the rich world. Nobody should be lulled into a false sense of security though. Firstly, although public debt is low, private debt in Denmark is high by international standards. Combined with [...]

By |October 17th, 2019|Categories: Newsletters|

Buttigeig for President

The Democratic primary season is now in full flow, with over a dozen hopefuls vying to go head to head against President Trump. The discussions have been frenetic, entertaining and, at times, illuminating. Clear detail on economic proposals has been missing though; leading contenders like Senator Kamala Harris and former Congressman Beto O’ Rourke, prefer talking about values, and slip quickly into vague generalities when discussing economic matters. The clear exception to this principle is Pete Buttigieg. Buttigeig, who goes by the moniker “Mayor Pete”, is unusual in many ways being only 37, having served in Afghanistan, and being currently the mayor in South Bend, Indiana, an industrial town of around 100,000 people. Whilst some argue his youth is [...]

By |April 8th, 2019|Categories: Newsletters|

Performance of the Dow Jones under Trump

After a spectacularly successful 2017, the Dow Jones had a difficult 2018, ending with the worst December performance since the Great Depression. This turnaround has gathered a lot of attention but what is the reason behind it?   Firstly, there are some domestic macroeconomic issues. The current American upswing has lasted for a decade, making it unusually lengthy already. When the four recent rate increases from the Federal Reserve are factored in, there is genuine concern about the future of the American economy, particularly whether it can transition from a prolonged period of low interest rates.   Added to this, there is concern about economic performances outside the US. Of the major European economies, the UK is moving sideways thanks [...]

By |January 28th, 2019|Categories: Newsletters|
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