Whilst British Prime Minister Boris Johnson recently illegally suspended Parliament, and US President Donald Trump faces an impeachment inquiry, new Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has faced far less turbulent times. Firstly, a ferocious Liberal party power struggle has taken up all the domestic focus in recent months. Secondly, Denmark is in a fairly enviable position. Growth since the financial crisis has been steady, if unspectacular; unemployment is moderate; there is a whopping current account deficit; and Denmark enjoys one of the lowest levels of public debt in the rich world. Nobody should be lulled into a false sense of security though. Firstly, although public debt is low, private debt in Denmark is high by international standards. Combined with [...]

By |October 17th, 2019|Categories: Newsletters|

Buttigeig for President

The Democratic primary season is now in full flow, with over a dozen hopefuls vying to go head to head against President Trump. The discussions have been frenetic, entertaining and, at times, illuminating. Clear detail on economic proposals has been missing though; leading contenders like Senator Kamala Harris and former Congressman Beto O’ Rourke, prefer talking about values, and slip quickly into vague generalities when discussing economic matters. The clear exception to this principle is Pete Buttigieg. Buttigeig, who goes by the moniker “Mayor Pete”, is unusual in many ways being only 37, having served in Afghanistan, and being currently the mayor in South Bend, Indiana, an industrial town of around 100,000 people. Whilst some argue his youth is [...]

By |April 8th, 2019|Categories: Newsletters|

Performance of the Dow Jones under Trump

After a spectacularly successful 2017, the Dow Jones had a difficult 2018, ending with the worst December performance since the Great Depression. This turnaround has gathered a lot of attention but what is the reason behind it?   Firstly, there are some domestic macroeconomic issues. The current American upswing has lasted for a decade, making it unusually lengthy already. When the four recent rate increases from the Federal Reserve are factored in, there is genuine concern about the future of the American economy, particularly whether it can transition from a prolonged period of low interest rates.   Added to this, there is concern about economic performances outside the US. Of the major European economies, the UK is moving sideways thanks [...]

By |January 28th, 2019|Categories: Newsletters|

Brexit A Year On

With the recent inclement weather hitting Europe, it doesn’t feel like March. The (notional) turning of the season does, though, mean we are at the halfway point of Britain’s two-year notice period to leave the European Union (EU). Here, we assess what has happened to date and how things are likely to proceed going forward.   Progress to Date Modest advancements have been made since Prime Minister Theresa May invoked article 50 - starting the two-year notice period on 29 March 2017. The European Commission promptly said that they wanted to focus on three main areas at first: citizens’ rights; agreement on the financial settlement (the so-called “divorce bill”); and mitigating the effect on the island of Ireland. After [...]

By |March 12th, 2018|Categories: Newsletters|

Teething Problems For The Trump Administration

Ever since Franklin Roosevelt, American Presidents have been scrutinised on their performance in the first 100 days. The measurement is often unreasonable – Roosevelt had a clear plan to hit the ground running, rooted in the belief that the Hoover administration’s inaction had deepened the Great Depression. Just over three months is often simply not long enough for a new team to leave their mark with meaningful and well considered change. A review after 200 days, on the other hand, allows more time to consider the achievements of a new administration. That period passed last week for the Trump administration.   Much of the talk in recent months has focussed on the day to day internal squabbles of the [...]

By |August 14th, 2017|Categories: Newsletters|

Five Consequences of the UK Referendum

On 23 June 2016, the British electorate voted to leave the European Union (EU). The consequences of this vote will play out over many years now. In this article we look at five of the consequences.   Labour Party in Turmoil   The British Prime Minister, David Cameron, announced immediately after the referendum result that he would be standing down. Realistically he had little choice; he campaigned hard to keep Britain in the EU and the eventual loss destroyed his authority.   The Conservative party, however, realigned itself quickly around Theresa May, the former Home Secretary. A serious politician, Mrs May does not indulge in social media gimmicks performed by many modern politicians. She is seen as a safe [...]

By |January 23rd, 2017|Categories: Newsletters|