Like the inversion of Mike Campbell in Hemingway’s “The Sun Also Rises” the United Kingdom ended at a hard Brexit suddenly, and then gradually. The big bang was the vote six years ago, but that did not have to mean an absolutist clean break. That was instead the result of an accumulation of constant framing, and a myriad of tactical misjudgements.

Theresa May tried to get a Brexit bill through Parliament in early 2020, several times. This included a backstop whereby Britain would not leave the customs union until an alternative arrangement for Northern Ireland was found. For all her limitations as a politician, May tried to sincerely grapple with this particular hot potato.

It was no surprise that May’s plan was rejected by Conservative hardliners, who see legal sovereignty in absolutist terms. More puzzling was that Labour, Liberal Democrats, the SNP and Northern Irish unionists voted against it. May’s plan was no perfect by any means, but it kept alive the possibility of a softer Brexit.

With May unable to move the ball forward, her colleagues broke the emergency glass and replaced her with Johnson. Johnson decided that the country needed a clean break and “got Brexit done”; by ignoring previous assurances to Northern Irish unionists, and agreeing to a regulatory border in the Irish Sea. This is now creating entirely foreseeable (and foreseen) problems.

There is plenty of posturing currently form opposition politicians, but one point is rarely admitted. By choosing to vote down May’s agreement and allowing Johnson in, the other parties ensured that they did not get the more practical Brexit they claimed to want.

This modern history shows how indifference to Northern Ireland, goalposts being moved, poor opposition tactical decisions and an amorphous concept of sovereignty led the United Kingdom to sleepwalk into a full break with the EU. Other solutions, involving membership of the single market and/or the customs union, or a deeper relationship with the EU were not only possible, but far more aligned with what was promised during the campaign.

The most common refrain as why a clean break was required was that the will of the people had to be respected. In fact, the contrary was the case. At no point during the campaigning was the argument made that leaving the single market and opting for a complete reset with relations with the EU was necessary. Brexit campaigners regularly made clear that their issue was with the European Union, and they did not want to leave the single market. Campaigners from Daniel Hannan to Nigel Farage, used Norway and Switzerland as examples that a post-Brexit UK could be successful. Of course, Norway is close to the EU through its membership of the EEA, whereas Switzerland has deep treaties with the EU ensuring close ties.

 

Northern Ireland is at the forefront of the societal impact, but the rest of the UK is being hit too. With COVID on the retreat, we now have a better idea of the impact Brexit has caused. Trade with the EU has plummeted, investment is down, and studies show that Brexit has added to inflation. It is neither the time nor the place to re-litigate of the Brexit campaign. However, with discussions surrounding the Northern Irish protocol, the time is right to critique the implementation of Brexit, and wake up from this sleepwalking.